What happened
Professional forecasters surveyed by the European Central Bank (ECB) now expect euro area inflation of 3.0% in 2026, up 0.3 percentage points from the previous survey. The results were published on 30 October 2026 for the fourth quarter.
The ECB says the upward revision comes mainly from higher energy prices and their indirect effects. Inflation here is measured by the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), the euro area’s standard measure of consumer inflation.
Inflation
- Headline HICP inflation: 3.0% for 2026, 2.6% for 2027 and 2.0% for 2028. The 2026 and 2027 figures rose by 0.3 and 0.4 percentage points; 2028 was unchanged.
- Core inflation, which excludes energy and food: 2.4% for 2026, 2.5% for 2027 and 2.2% for 2028. Changes from the last survey were 0.0, 0.2 and 0.1 percentage points.
- Longer-term expectations, for 2031, stayed at 2.0% for both headline and core inflation.
A special question asked about the war in the Middle East. Responses suggested extra effects from the energy price shock are mainly expected in 2027, while second-round effects, meaning energy costs feeding into wages and other prices, should stay limited. Risks to inflation lean to the upside for 2026 to 2028 and are more balanced after that.
Growth and jobs
On output, the panel sees the euro area economy expanding by 1.0% in 2026, then by 1.3% in each of 2027 and 2028, measured as GDP adjusted for inflation. Compared with the last survey, the 2026 number is 0.4 percentage points higher and the 2027 number 0.1 higher, while 2028 did not move. The ECB links the near-term upgrade mainly to recent data. Looking to 2031, the growth expectation rose by 0.1 percentage point to 1.3%. Risks to growth lean somewhat to the downside at all horizons.
The unemployment rate is expected at 6.4% in 2026, 6.3% in 2027 and 6.2% in 2028, falling to 6.1% in the longer term. The 2026 figure is 0.1 percentage point higher than before. Wage growth is expected at 3.3% in 2026, 3.1% in 2027 and 2.8% in 2028, with 2.7% in the longer term.
What it means for you
This is a survey of outside forecasters, not an ECB forecast. The ECB says the results do not represent the views of its decision-making bodies or staff.
For anyone with euro-linked income, savings or costs, the survey points to somewhat higher price pressure in the euro area over the next two years, with expectations for the longer run still at 2.0%. It does not say what the ECB will do with interest rates.
Background
The Survey of Professional Forecasters is run every quarter. It collects expectations for euro area inflation, growth and unemployment, along with views on the ECB’s deposit facility rate, the euro-dollar exchange rate, Brent crude prices, wages and the output gap. This round ran from 2 to 7 October 2026 and drew 52 responses from experts at financial and non-financial institutions in Europe.
Related reading: euro area consumers expect 3.1% inflation in a year.
What to watch next
The next Eurosystem staff macroeconomic projections for the euro area are due on 18 December 2026.
